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Jazz Fan Explains Why New CBA Rules Make Trading Lauri Markkanen Difficult This Offseason

According to a Jazz fan on Reddit, trading Lauri Markkanen this offseason will be very challenging due to new CBA rules.

Despite reports suggesting that many rival executives believe the Jazz will move Markkanen, with the Golden State Warriors being the frontrunners, the complexities of the CBA could hinder such a trade.

“Utah is not sure it wants to trade (Markkanen), but they have to listen; they’ve been listening, “And a lot of the teams that missed out on Mikal Bridges from Brooklyn have transferred over to try and see if they can land Lauri Markkanen from Utah. Golden State is one of those teams.”

Additionally, the Jazz are reportedly considering moving Jordan Clarkson, Collin Sexton, and possibly Walker Kessler this offseason.

Here’s what the fan wrote:

“It’s going to be extremely hard to move Lauri Markkanen this year due to CBA issues so it will be extremely hard to tank.”

– “Lauri Markkanen is looking for a four-year max extension. However, the CBA only allows raises in extensions to be 40% over the last year of his contract. The salary cap in 2025-2026 is likely to be $155.1m, so a max for a player with less than 10 years in the league is $46.53m starting in year one. Therefore, a player must be making $33.24m or more in 2024-2025 to sign a max extension for 2025-2026.

– Lauri Markkanen is set to make $18.044m next year. However, after Lauri’s contract hits three years old, whoever has him under contract can renegotiate and extend him. This involves the team using their own salary cap space to give a raise to a player for their current year and then extending him for future years. The Jazz did this last year with Clarkson, though for different reasons. To renegotiate and extend Markkanen, the Jazz or whoever traded for Markkanen must give him a $15.2m raise this year, using their cap space.

– Now we get into the timing issues caused by the CBA. If you trade for a player, you can’t extend them for at least six months. If you extend a player, you cannot trade them for at least six months. You must hit the salary floor by mid-October. Lauri signed his current contract on August 27, 2021. The trade deadline is early February 2025.

– The salary floor is 90% of the cap, meaning that a team can only pass mid-October with $14.1m in cap space or less.

So let’s go through a few scenarios here:

– Jazz renegotiate and extend Markkanen. In this scenario, the Jazz cannot renegotiate and extend him until August 27, 2024, or later. This means they could not trade Markkanen until February 27, 2025, which is after the trade deadline.

– The Jazz do not renegotiate and extend Markkanen and try to trade him to a team with cap space that promises to renegotiate and extend him. In this scenario, a team could hypothetically offer Markkanen a $14.1m raise this year and a near-max contract. Over five years, this would lose Markkanen around $8m compared to a renegotiation and max, so Markkanen’s agent would realistically try to harm trade talks unless an absolutely perfect situation came up. And what teams could realistically hold this much cap space available for renegotiation and extending? It’s mostly just the Pistons and Spurs, so Markkanen’s agent would probably tell the Pistons that he would rather test free agency because the Pistons are so awful (and this is actually pretty reasonable for a player to say as well, lol). This narrows Markkanen’s market and reduces his trade value.

– The Jazz do not renegotiate and extend Markkanen and try to trade him to a team that will not renegotiate and extend him. This move would cost Markkanen at least $15m and would cause a huge amount of risk for Markkanen if he got injured during next season, so he and his agent would try to sabotage any trade talks to non-ideal situations by implying that he could leave in free agency. I would say this narrows down his market to basically just title contenders where he would fit well and get a good amount of shots. If you narrow that down to teams that have assets, you’re basically just left with the 76ers, Thunder… Maybe the Lakers? Maybe the Heat if they trade Butler? Maybe the Nets if Mitchell demands a second star player to come with him? And all of these teams will likely be more wary of giving up 4+ picks still because Lauri won’t be able to extend with them.

So we’re looking at a very narrow trade market, and that lowers the odds dramatically that a team will want to roll the dice and go all-in with Markkanen, making the odds of trading him much lower. Sexton and Kessler also have depressed trade value (Sexton due to his seasons before this not being great and Kessler for having a disappointing second year), so they’re unlikely to be traded as well, though they could be traded at the deadline if they have a great year. These are our three best players, so it’s hard to see any tanking moves being plausible.”

For most Jazz fans, keeping Lauri Markkanen in Salt Lake City is a top priority. However, with rumors circulating about his potential move, we are all waiting to see how things unfold and considering how this fan’s opinion on Reddit might factor into the situation.

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